Geopolitical Alarm Bells Are Ringing: The Impact of the US National Security Strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean
Aligning Israeli – Greek Business Ventures with National Interest and Global Geopolitical Realities
Geopolitical Alarm Bells Are Ringing: The Impact of the US National Security Strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean
Aligning Israeli – Greek Business Ventures with National Interest and Global Geopolitical Realities
By Mr Konstantinos Petoumenos*
– Implications of the new US National Security Strategy
As cynical realism, strategic nationalism and economic interests drive the redistribution of global power and the emergence of a new world order, the world is experiencing history in the making.
In January 2025 we published an article on the “Day After” highlighting the reversal of globalization and the resurgence of a nation-centered world order, in which national
security and national interests have become paramount – reinforced by the deliberate alignment of private-sector capabilities with core national strategies.1
A few months later, the official release of the US National Security Strategy, together with subsequent geopolitical developments on the ground, decisively confirmed the validity of this approach.
Nation-states remain the primary actors in geopolitics, and “peace through strength” has become the doctrine. At the same time, traditional international institutions and regulatory frameworks are viewed by the US as outdated, while vital business, industrial and economic sectors are expected to align with core national interests.
The top US strategic priority appears to be consolidating control over the Western Hemisphere and the Arctic – because of maritime passages and critical mineral resources – while avoiding direct involvement in conflicts unless vital national interests are at stake. Although this avoidance has yet to be fully confirmed in practice, the Indo-Pacific region remains the primary focus of US national security.
As a result, US direct presence is expected to partially recede from traditionally strategic regions, including Europe, the Middle-East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
– Strengthening the Israel – Greece – Cyprus trilateral axis: Leveraging the US strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean
The declared shift under the new US National Security Strategy poses significant challenges for partners and allies located at critical geopolitical crossroads, including Israel, Greece, and Cyprus. At the same time, it presents a unique opportunity for these countries to assume an enhanced regional role, while advancing the US strategic objective of partially withdrawing its constant presence from the region.
In line with US principles – which prioritize the advancement of national interests –, and given that Israel, Greece, and Cyprus face common vital threats from revisionist states that undermine regional stability, they must develop a determined strategic partnership. The first step is the establishment of enhanced, multilayered military cooperation through a joint trilateral rapid-response force. This force would encompass land, sea, air, cyberspace, and space interoperability capabilities, aimed at ensuring strength, resilience, and deterrence.
Such a tripartite bloc between Israel, Greece, and Cyprus – already announced by their leaders and coordinated by their Ministers of Defense – must be reinforced by the deepening of corresponding business partnerships across their private sectors –, in a way that core national, business interests and economy will function complementarily as an integrated whole, multiplying benefits for all stakeholders.
Since the US has strategically laid the groundwork for the “3+1” framework – comprising Israel, Greece, Cyprus, and the US –, the core “3” geopolitical bloc can be selectively complemented by flexible “+1” partner configurations, among other, in line with the “Eastern Mediterranean Gateway Act” bill, already approved by the “House Foreign Affairs Committee” in the US. These partners may be India, Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, and others.
Such arrangements could serve as a key component of cross-regional energy security and multilevel connectivity projects promoted by the US and/or the EU, including the Great Sea Interconnector (“GSI”), the “GREGY” Egypt – Greece Green Energy Interconnector, the Israel – Egypt great gas deal, the “Vertical Corridor”, the development of liquefied natural gas facilities in Greece, the “CYCLOPS” US – Cyprus security concept, and, most importantly, the India – Middle East – Europe Corridor (“IMEC”) mega-project.
Overall, this strategic trilateral architecture will significantly enhance the geopolitical leverage of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus individually, delivering tangible benefits to their respective private sectors, while reinforcing their collective role as a cohesive group, effectively advancing also key US and EU interests.
– Geopolitical realities and long-term business planning
As evidenced, among other factors, by the new US National Security Strategy and its targeted moves on the global geopolitical chessboard, alignment of the private sector with national strategic interests is a necessity.
This is further confirmed by landmark governmental and business agreements, partnerships, and deals in the Eastern Mediterranean – primarily spanning the energy, defense and security, technology and innovation, infrastructure, and transportation. These initiatives integrate multilayered connectivity from Israel in the Middle East to Europe via Cyprus, Greece, and the Balkans, while also strengthening Europe’s energy security, and paving the way for deeper collaboration across additional areas, including maritime sector and shipping industry, primary production and agriculture, food and water management, real estate, tourism.
To this end, key organizations, such as the Israel – Greece Chamber of Commerce and Industry2 and the Greek – Israeli Chamber of Commerce and Technology3, through a series of actions, effectively bridge business interests, catalyze partnerships, and align private economic activity with core national strategies.
In conclusion, Israel and Greece must take the reshaped US national security strategy into serious consideration and, together with Cyprus, effectively fill the resulting geopolitical gap in the region by timely and properly positioning themselves as strong natural strategic partners – and potential allies – capable of ensuring, promoting, and sustaining cross-regional security, energy integration, trade, and multidimensional connectivity, while also benefiting their private sectors and economies.
Similarly, the private sector must carefully assess ongoing geopolitical shifts and associated risks and proactively adapt its long-term business planning. In doing so, it should seize opportunities arising from this transition while remaining aligned with core national strategies and reinforcing strategic objectives shared with key allies and partners, including the US, the EU, and India.
January 2026
*Mr Konstantinos Petoumenos is the Managing Partner at KMPLaw Law Firm.
Having completed the International Spring Semester at the European Security and Defense College, hosted by the Hellenic Army Academy, his MSc in Geopolitical Analysis, Strategic Synthesis, and International Security focuses on the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. He also holds degrees in Law and Political Science, an LL.M. in International Taxation from Queen Mary University of London, and is a Certified International Tax Specialist accredited by the Chartered Institute of Taxation (UK).